Denver Broncos Week 9 Recap - Broncos Sleepwalk Through Win Over Top Ranked Texans Defense
Another 4th-quarter comeback for Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, who are now 4-0 when trailing in the 4th quarter this season. This is Denver's third win of the year in games where they had a win probability of less than 20% entering the fourth quarter. Outscoring opponents during the 4th quarter 86-20 in their last five games during their current six-game win streak. With this win over Houston, the Broncos improve their record in one-score games this year to 5-2, a big turnaround from their 1-6 record last year. On the other side of the ball, the Texans drop to 3-5 on the season, with four of their five losses coming in one-score games. The Broncos are leaders of the AFC West for the first time since 2015, when they won the Super Bowl. The Texans now sit at third in the AFC South with a 23% probability to make the playoffs.
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Bend, don't break. That is what the Denver Broncos live by this season: they don't care about how many yards your offense has at the end of the day. They are too strong in the middle to overpower at the goalline, and they are too disciplined to fool with a gadget/trick play. Houston entered the game as the 31st-ranked red zone offense, going up against Denver's number one red zone defense, and this game was a perfect display of these records holding true. Houston had the ball inside Denver's one-yard line and walked away with three points after trying to power it in three times and being stopped by Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga each time. On Houston's next drive, CJ Stroud was injured after hitting the back of his helmet against the turf in a collision with Kris Abrams-Draine. The play was flagged initially for the hit on Stroud, but the review clearly showed a late slide, followed by a legal hit, and no penalty was enforced. On the Texans very next drive, backup quarterback Davis Mills led the offense to the Broncos two-yard line, only to be driven back again and settle for another field goal. Houston finished the day 0/3 in the red zone and didn't manage to score a single touchdown in the game, the fourth Denver opponent this year to be held out of the endzone. Denver lost the field position battle for most of the game, but when they did find themselves in Houston territory, they capitalized. Bo Nix had two passing touchdowns of over twenty-five yards in Houston territory and ran the offense to perfection to get the ball across midfield and into range for Lutz's game-winner.
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The game is won and lost on third down. This is what many coaches believe, and it translates to converting third downs on offense, getting off the field on defense. The Texans abysmal performance in the red zone was matched only by their production on third down, where they went 3 of 17. Denver was able to keep them behind the sticks by limiting their rushing attack to just 2.8 yards per carry. Mills was effective in short passing scenarios, getting the ball out quicker than the Broncos pass rush could handle for most of the game, but as a result was not moving the ball well, not pushing the field, and caused their own run game to collapse by allowing Hufanga to play near the line of scrimmage more throughout the game. Zach Allen allowed no room for anything inside, having one of his best games I've seen, making his presence especially known to the quarterback, whoever it was for the Texans on Sunday, even getting a sack and a half on Stroud in his limited playtime. In the end, Allen ended the game for the Texans offense by rushing Mills off his platform on third down and forcing a punt that was the nail in the coffin.
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Without Surtain, the Broncos played the least amount of man coverage they have all season (27%), a strategy that fits well against the Texans offensive scheme that features many crossing routes. Dre Greenlaw played in his second game as a Bronco and made his impact early on with a sack and a major contribution on the Broncos goalline stand. His presence provided a much-needed burst in the Broncos run defense, where they shut the Texans down and dominated the middle of the field defensively. Another free agent addition from San Francisco, Talanoa Hufanga had one of his best games as a Bronco. Hufanga continues to make plays all over the field like a drone, he is swatting passes down at the line, breaking up catches thirty yards downfield, and blowing up runs at the goalline. He is playing at an all-pro level right now, and once Surtain comes back, Moss and Barron should be iron sharp from their time in elevated roles, this defense should be firing on all cylinders come January.
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On Offense, Denver struggled expectedly against a tough defense, but not the kind of struggling we saw last year. The run game was actually effective with Dobbins, he averaged 6 ypc to start the game but only got four carries in the first half. Dobbins continues to carve his name in as the Broncos workhorse and this game emphasized what roles each running back plays in this offense. Harvey was the teams leading receiver, getting most of his work on the Broncos final few drives on designed checkdowns but also scored on Nix's second touchdown of the day on a 27-yard wheel route. Sean Payton said in his post game press conference that "the Texans ran a similar coverage with their linebackers against us two years ago and sat in the same defense today", the only difference being RJ Harvey this time around. Fellow rookie Pat Bryant continued to impress after his touchdown performance last week, converting two huge third downs in the fourth quarter. Between the dirty work he handles in the run game and his soft hands in crucial scenarios, Bryant is playing up to his third round value. A fourth rounder a year ago, Troy Franklin is starting to look like Bo Nix's favorite target, he had his second game with 10 targets in three weeks and he was the designed target on Denvers key two-point conversion. Receiver Marvin Mims returned to practice this Tuesday after missing Sundays game to a concussion, his impact was missed especially on special teams where the his replacement Michael Bandy muffed a punt to give the Texans three points, almost costing them the game. The one bright spot on special teams was Jeremy Crawshaw, who continues to be amazing at flipping the field and is playing in direct contribution with our defense. Wil Lutz also shined with a game winner, extending his game winning field goals to 14/16 under Sean Payton.
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The Broncos will look to prioritize rest on a short week where they host the Raiders in a Thursday Night divisonal matchup. Read below for more on that matchup...
Week 10 AFC West Prime Time - Broncos vs Raiders: Throwback To A Timeless Rivalry
Returning for the Raiders last week in big fashion was Brock Bowers, who had a whopping 12 receptions for 127 yards & 3 touchdowns. All for not, as the Raiders would lose in overtime on a failed two-point conversion after Geno Smith's pass was knocked down at the line of scrimmage. This will be the toughest matchup for the Broncos at tight end since Jake Ferguson came in as the league's leading receiver and was skunked; unfortunately, Bowers is not Ferguson and is basically one of one. Stopping Bowers completely may not be an option, but limiting him is certainly priority one for Denver. The Raiders have a new playmaker in the backfield as well, rookie sensation Ashton Jeanty, who has struggled alongside his offensive line throughout this season, but still manages to churn out respectable stat lines as a workhorse. The Raiders have no problem running him into a wall all game if it means he will potentially slip one out for a breakaway touchdown, the Broncos need to wrap up and get eleven to the ball against Jeanty and tackle through the whistle. Because even if it results in an extra fifteen, it's better than letting him go forty for six. If the Broncos can account for these two Raider playmakers on offense, they will be able to put Geno Smith in a cage and force unwanted throws against the league's interception leader.
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Red zone, dead zone. The Raiders have the fourth-worst red zone offense in the NFL, scoring on just 45% of their red zone drives. On the road, they drop even lower to 37%, the actual lowest in the league. The Broncos boast the best red zone defense in the league, a unit that has maintained this standard for two years now, allowing scoring drives on just 34% of opponents red zone possessions. Geno Smith has targeted receivers on underneath routes at the 3rd-highest rate amongst quarterbacks, a recipe for disaster against this Broncos defense that wants you to throw it short so their aggressive defenders can come flatten you short of the sticks. Dre Greenlaw (4) and Talanoa Hufanga (3) combined for 7 run stuffs, resulting in losses or no gain. Greenlaw's four stuffed runs for losses were the most by any defender this season, tied with Fred Warner and Patrick Queen. Hufanga's 36 run tackles are the second most by any safety this season, and he is also allowing the fewest yards per coverage snap (0.1). Between all 35 players who have recorded 300+ coverage snaps this year, Hufanga is the only player to allow fewer than 100 yards and has only allowed 43 yards on 18 targets. Even with the low target volume, Hufanga is also tied for most passes defended (8) among safeties.
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The Broncos have ridden their Mile High to the longest active home winning streak in the NFL. Before the season kicked off, Broncos players were emphasizing the importance in the locker room for the team to establish that infamous Mile High home-field advantage. They have done just that, earning the longest active home winning streak in the NFL with their nine consecutive home wins. The Raiders on the road this year are just 1-3, with their lone win coming in week one Foxborough. Head coach Pete Carroll hasn't been to Denver since 2018 with Seattle, where the Seahawks lost 27-24, neither Geno Smith nor Pete Carroll has ever beaten the Broncos in Denver as either a starter or head coach. In their last two home games, the Broncos have scored 77 points combined, the Raiders have scored 6 combined points over their last two away games.
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Can the Broncos offense keep rolling on a short week? Marvin Mims is back to practice which is great news for the offense as well as special teams units. Slowing Maxx Crobsy down is always the key to beating the Raiders, which the Broncos have done well under Bo Nix. Garett Bolles can lock Crosby down one on one, and Crosby knows better than to test the seasoned veteran so he will mostly line up against McGlinchey when on the edge, but expect Crosby to move around on the interior, where the Broncos are down to their third left guard. Chip blocks on Crosby have been effective for opposing offenses this season, causing him to generate a career low in pressure rate of just 8.9%. The Raiders have generated the 2nd-lowest pressure rate of any defenes this year at just 26%, meanwhile Bo Nix stays protected behind the Broncos highly paid offensive line, being pressured on just 25% of his dropbacks, the second lowest rate amongst starting quarterbacks. JK Dobbins should be vital to controlling the pace of this game for Denver, keeping Crosby out of the game as a pass rusher and making the Raider play team defense and rally to the ball. RJ Harvey's change of pace is the perfect 1-2 punch to push the Raiders over the edge on long drives, keeping our defense off the field and well rested for a big matchup agains the Chiefs in ten days.
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This game is a perfect chance for Denver to put together another four quarters like they did against Dallas. Ideally, the Broncos should put a lesser team like the Raiders to bed early and focus on their date with the Chiefs at home ten days later. It is important for the Broncos to walk the line between outright beating the Raiders, and not putting too much on tape for a Chiefs team that has 14 days to prepare. This game won't end up meaning a damn thing if Denver doesn't beat the Chiefs, but they can't overlook the Raiders and get caught up in the trap of being too focused on the Chiefs, because regardless, Denver needs to win at least one of their next two, and I think they win them both.

