AFC Matchup Week 9: How Will Broncos Defense Respond To Surtain Absence?

According to Next Gen Stats, the 2025 Texans are the first team since the 1970 NFL merger to lead the NFL in fewest points and yards allowed while having a losing record through the first 8 weeks of a season. Though they are coming off a more complete performance as a team against the 49ers, where Houston controlled the pace of the game and field position, earning chunk plays offensively with their play action pass. The offensive line also protected Stroud better than they have all season, allowing their lowest pressure percentage of the year. Denver’s pass rush however, is the best in the league, with a leagues most 36 sacks through eight games, coming off a game where they had 15 pressures against Dak Prescott who is one of the least sacked quarterbacks this year. The Texans pass rush is just as hard to come by yards against, they lead the number one scoring defense in the league, and will look to stay hot enough to melt the ice in Bo Nix’s veins, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the last month. Nix has 8 total touchdowns and just one turnover in Denver’s last two victories, while leading the team to 77-points of offense in their last five quarters.

​Both teams have had their fair share of close games this season, but the results have been drastically different for each of them. Houston is the only 0–4 team in close games this year, all their losses coming in one score games. The Broncos lost their week two and three game against walk-off field goals as time expired to the Colts and Chargers, but are 4–2 in close games all season. Houston is favored to win after going 1–2 following their bye week, meanwhile Denver is on a five game win streak. The media this week has been heavily talking about how the Texans appear to be the team that’s heating up, they are getting a lot of credit for beating a 49ers team with Mac Jones at quarterback, so I’m not ready to buy into the hype yet. But I will buy into this Texans defense, they are the real deal. Houston’s inability to protect Stroud in crucial scenarios has been the thorn in their side, and going against their toughest matchup of the year it will be their biggest test.

Houston’s advantage in this game is also Denver’s biggest news of the year, Patrick Surtain will be out for at least the next two games. This not only creates stronger opportunities for the Texans receiving core, but it may result in an entirely different defensive approach for the Broncos, who like to play a heavily man scheme. Many believe the Broncos pass rush is reliant on Surtain’s strong coverage to provide them the time to get to the quarterback, but most quarterbacks avoid throwing at Surtain all together. On offense, the Broncos will be missing Marvin Mims, who entered concussion protocol after last week’s game. His presence on special teams could sorely be missed as well against a stiffy Texans defense where yards will be hard to come by and field position will be of vital importance. The Texans are could be without Denico Autry in the middle, which would be a huge benefit for the Broncos rushing attack with Dobbins and Harvey. Nico Collins will be returning from a concussion on Sunday, and the Broncos get Dre Greenlaw back from suspension as well.

Sean Payton said it all this week when he said the Broncos will be leaning heavily on their first and second year players in Surtain’s absence. Riley Moss and Jahdae Barron will play increased roles, with Moss presumably being elevated to Surtain’s role while Barron functions outside the slot more. On offense, Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant made their potential impact known last week and will be called upon just as much this week without Marvin Mims. Rookie running back RJ Harvey could be included in more of a receiving role as well from the backfield to fill in for Mims explosiveness the Broncos will be lacking. The veterans will have just as much of an impact, Evan Engram has been a constant mismatch for defenders this season and JK Dobbins is third in the NFL in rushing yards coming in. Garett Bolles will also have to continue his dominant streak with tough matchups against Texans edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Preventing sacks and staying out of long down and distance is pivotal for a Broncos victory, leaning on strong protection and a steady push from Bolles, Meinerz, and company. Keeping themselves out of obvious passing situations will protect Nix and control the pace of the game, sustaining drives against this defense will be difficult but doable if the Broncos hit all their notes and take points when they can.

Defensively, the Broncos will be trying to find their identity without their star corner while doing enough to give their offense solid opportunities against an elite Texans unit. This game will be a huge test for Vance Joseph, can he generate pressure without an all-pro corner in the back? I expect to see Joseph come out and run his defense as he normally would, it has been a top unit for three years now and there is no reason to attempt and reinvent the wheel. Joseph has historically stuck to his scheme in times of adversity, when he has tried to deviate from the path is when things go awry. The Texans offense this season hasn’t struck me as elite in any way, they’ve managed to establish a new backfield with injuries occurring, but I don’t see why a defense as proven as Denver’s would feel the need to change everything against a team that averages 16 ppg against winning teams. The simulated pressure looks that Vance Joseph loves to dial up have been effective against the Texans offensive line in other games this year.

Overall, I believe this game will be close, definitely within one touchdown and low scoring on both sides. Both defenses are too good to allow this game to become a shootout. In these close games, it is really about coaching that it comes down to, and Houston being 0–4 in close games this season compared to Denver’s 4–2 comes off as damning evidence to me. Yes I think Surtain’s injury is extremely significant, No I don’t think the Texans have the offensive firepower to exploit his replacement in a way that renders the rest of the Broncos elite defenders useless, like so many analysts seem to believe will happen. Surtain was getting targeted even when healthy, receivers breaking open against him would often not be found by the quarterback due to Denver’s intense pressure off the snap. With all the attention drawn to Surtain’s injury it has taken eyes off the real key to Denvers victory, offensive success. Third down efficiency and time of possession need to be at the top of Denvers priorities on offense, this feels like a game where Sutton will be called up for some big time contested catches if Denver is having trouble stretching the field steadily. Houston has kept teams out of the redzone at a successful rate, but when opposing offenses enter the redzone against Houston, they are scoring at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL, meanwhile Denver owns the best redzone defense in the league, an achievement that has spanned two seasons now, while having a top-10 redzone offense to match.