Week 10 AFC West Prime Time - Broncos vs Raiders: Throwback To A Timeless Rivalry

Returning for the Raiders last week in big fashion was Brock Bowers, who had a whopping 12 receptions for 127 yards & 3 touchdowns. All for not, as the Raiders would lose in overtime on a failed two-point conversion after Geno Smith's pass was knocked down at the line of scrimmage. This will be the toughest matchup for the Broncos at tight end since Jake Ferguson came in as the league's leading receiver and was skunked; unfortunately, Bowers is not Ferguson and is basically one of one. Stopping Bowers completely may not be an option, but limiting him is certainly priority one for Denver. The Raiders have a new playmaker in the backfield as well, rookie sensation Ashton Jeanty, who has struggled alongside his offensive line throughout this season, but still manages to churn out respectable stat lines as a workhorse. The Raiders have no problem running him into a wall all game if it means he will potentially slip one out for a breakaway touchdown, the Broncos need to wrap up and get eleven to the ball against Jeanty and tackle through the whistle. Because even if it results in an extra fifteen, it's better than letting him go forty for six. If the Broncos can account for these two Raider playmakers on offense, they will be able to put Geno Smith in a cage and force unwanted throws against the league's interception leader.

Red zone, dead zone. The Raiders have the fourth-worst red zone offense in the NFL, scoring on just 45% of their red zone drives. On the road, they drop even lower to 37%, the actual lowest in the league. The Broncos boast the best red zone defense in the league, a unit that has maintained this standard for two years now, allowing scoring drives on just 34% of opponents red zone possessions. Geno Smith has targeted receivers on underneath routes at the 3rd-highest rate amongst quarterbacks, a recipe for disaster against this Broncos defense that wants you to throw it short so their aggressive defenders can come flatten you short of the sticks. Dre Greenlaw (4) and Talanoa Hufanga (3) combined for 7 run stuffs, resulting in losses or no gain. Greenlaw's four stuffed runs for losses were the most by any defender this season, tied with Fred Warner and Patrick Queen. Hufanga's 36 run tackles are the second most by any safety this season, and he is also allowing the fewest yards per coverage snap (0.1). Between all 35 players who have recorded 300+ coverage snaps this year, Hufanga is the only player to allow fewer than 100 yards and has only allowed 43 yards on 18 targets. Even with the low target volume, Hufanga is also tied for most passes defended (8) among safeties.

The Broncos have ridden their Mile High to the longest active home winning streak in the NFL. Before the season kicked off, Broncos players were emphasizing the importance in the locker room for the team to establish that infamous Mile High home-field advantage. They have done just that, earning the longest active home winning streak in the NFL with their nine consecutive home wins. The Raiders on the road this year are just 1-3, with their lone win coming in week one Foxborough. Head coach Pete Carroll hasn't been to Denver since 2018 with Seattle, where the Seahawks lost 27-24, neither Geno Smith nor Pete Carroll has ever beaten the Broncos in Denver as either a starter or head coach. In their last two home games, the Broncos have scored 77 points combined, the Raiders have scored 6 combined points over their last two away games.

Can the Broncos offense keep rolling on a short week? Marvin Mims is back to practice which is great news for the offense as well as special teams units. Slowing Maxx Crobsy down is always the key to beating the Raiders, which the Broncos have done well under Bo Nix. Garett Bolles can lock Crosby down one on one, and Crosby knows better than to test the seasoned veteran so he will mostly line up against McGlinchey when on the edge, but expect Crosby to move around on the interior, where the Broncos are down to their third left guard. Chip blocks on Crosby have been effective for opposing offenses this season, causing him to generate a career low in pressure rate of just 8.9%. The Raiders have generated the 2nd-lowest pressure rate of any defenes this year at just 26%, meanwhile Bo Nix stays protected behind the Broncos highly paid offensive line, being pressured on just 25% of his dropbacks, the second lowest rate amongst starting quarterbacks. JK Dobbins should be vital to controlling the pace of this game for Denver, keeping Crosby out of the game as a pass rusher and making the Raider play team defense and rally to the ball. RJ Harvey's change of pace is the perfect 1-2 punch to push the Raiders over the edge on long drives, keeping our defense off the field and well rested for a big matchup agains the Chiefs in ten days.

This game is a perfect chance for Denver to put together another four quarters like they did against Dallas. Ideally, the Broncos should put a lesser team like the Raiders to bed early and focus on their date with the Chiefs at home ten days later. It is important for the Broncos to walk the line between outright beating the Raiders, and not putting too much on tape for a Chiefs team that has 14 days to prepare. This game won't end up meaning a damn thing if Denver doesn't beat the Chiefs, but they can't overlook the Raiders and get caught up in the trap of being too focused on the Chiefs, because regardless, Denver needs to win at least one of their next two, and I think they win them both.