Will Denver Extend Win Streak To Five Games?

Denver is currently one of three teams in the NFL on a four-game win streak, along with Chicago and New England. The Broncos have leaned primarily on their stellar defense, which leads the league in sacks, and is on pace to set the NFL sack record as a unit. Edge rushers Bonitto and Cooper have more combined sacks than an entire 10-NFL teams, including the reigning Super Bowl-winning defense, Philadelphia. The Broncos will need every bit of this elite defense to show out on Sunday as the high-powered Cowboys offense comes into Mile High.

​Dallas has scored 35+ points in three of their last four games, but they've also allowed 30+ points defensively in four of their seven games. Despite their offensive success, Dallas has struggled on the road so far this season, sitting at 1-3 in away games, including a loss to Carolina, and having their lone victory coming against the 0-7 Jets. Meanwhile, Denver owns the league's longest active winning streak at home, 8-0 since week six of last year.

The matchups on the outside between Dallas's receivers and Denver's corners will be a boxing match. Denver likes to play man coverage with their strong coverage corners and allow their pass rushers to pin their ears back. Denver hasn't had much success when sending blitzes this season, especially on third down, where Jaxson Dart burned the Broncos in several long-distance scenarios. Instead, Denver has excelled when it create a shrunken pocket for the quarterback to throw from with intense inward pressure, forcing opposing quarterbacks to operate from a 'phone booth'. This strategy forced Jalen Hurts and Jaxson Dart into uncomfortable throwing situations where they missed key downfield throws late in the game to secure the Broncos victory.

The matchup on the other side of the ball for Denver is most definitely the more advantageous one. Dallas comes in as the 30th ranked scoring offense, allowing nearly 30 ppg. Denver has been middle of the pack offensively, averaging just 23 ppg, but if there was ever a time for the offense to pick up some steam it would seemingly be against this suspect Cowboys unit. The cowboys have failed to generate any strength on defense, they can't defend the run (31st in rush yards allowed), they can't defend the pass (32nd in yards allowed & 31st in touchdowns). The one thing the Cowboys have done well on defense is pressure the quarterback, but they only have 14 sacks on the season compared to the Broncos league high 34. Both quarterbacks excel at avoiding taking sacks, each only taking 8 sacks total on the year. The difference is Bo Nix using his legs gives the Broncos an element the Cowboys miss with Dak. Instead, the Dallas quarterback will likely rely on his timing of getting the ball out quick to avoid taking sacks. If Denver can just get in the way of throwing windows they can quickly dismantle this passing attack that has troubled the league so far.

As far as the Broncos offense goes, I like their chances to find a groove against this defense. Dobbins should be able to find downhill lanes and keep the offense ahead of the sticks, and Payton should feel more comfortable than usual to let the downfield passing attack rip early on against a susceptible secondary who is already missing 3 players for Sundays game. Another feature of this Denver offense to be aware of is the new X-factor tight end, Evan Engram, who has been nearly unguardable in the intermediate area of the field this season. Alongside Engram the Broncos have another star player on offense that I call our secret weapon, Marvin Mims, He's already an all-pro special teamer, now he has proven he can go make big time plays as a receiver too. After Courtland Sutton, it is no contest who the other big-play maker on this offense is, Mims can create such havoc for defenses with his explosiveness, and as the Broncos best runner after the catch, they need to lean on him more. The bubble screen/wide receiver screen targets don't do anything to get him or Nix into rhythm.

What worries me most about this matchup is what will Sean Paytons first half playsheet look like? Around this time last year, the Broncos were the number one scoring offense on their opening drives. They need to stop tipping their hand at the run on early downs and allow Nix to work the field, it often feels like Payton scripts his first half to protect Bo Nix from throwing down field. I think the more targets we throw to Sutton on the numbers the more it will wear his corners down and pay off. The screens are too telegraphed, defenses smell them coming especially when Denver is 2nd & <6 from the middle of the field. It is possible that Denver can get away with many of their unappealing antics offensively against such a poorly performing defense, but more importantly they can't allow Dallas's offense to hang around when Denver should have many opportunities at points. Another thing that worries me is the Cowboys have another layer to their offense with Javonte Williams, who has been running like a man possessed since leaving Denver and will be looking for a hefty load of revenge. Denver can't let little narratives and cinderella stories get in their way, they need to dish out punishment and present themselves as a force in the AFC.

Historically, Sean Payton has gone on steady winning streaks in the middle of the season, the Broncos have done it the last two seasons under him and are on pace for a third. The upcoming 3-game slate appear to be very winnable games for Denver, (3-3-1 Dallas, 2-4 Houston & 2-5 Las Vegas). Winning these games and heading into a divisional matchup versus the Chiefs with a possible 8-2 record and a chance to go 9-2 is exactly what Broncos Country has been waiting for and what this locker rooms been envisioning.